Are we headed towards a global recession?
Although Russia's global financial footprint is limited, but large in commodities markets, especially if you add Ukraine to the mix. We have seen oil prices rise above their 2008. Historically, the surge in oil prices beyond $100 significantly increases the probability of a recession (see below).
In the near term, this is unlikely to change for a few reasons. Renewable energy narrative led to under-investment in Oil exploration globally. Shale producers in the US expect only a limited supply increase in 2022. OPEC has refused to raise production much and may lack the spare capacity to make up for Russian exports in the near term.
On top of all this, Russia's and Ukraine's also play key roles in wheat, fertilizers and other commodities markets. Given the global nature of the economies and market, price correlations across different commodities would make the current Ukraine conflict a generalized commodities price shock, not just an oil price shock. We are already seeing signs of this as all commodities prices are up.
Why would commodity price shock lead to  global recession?
Demand Channel.
Net importer of commodity given the wild moves will see partial demand destruction as some consumers within these economies might not afford current prices.This means reduced output and slow growth. Second, assuming the price inelasticity of some commodities (I will consume bread at $2 or $5 and not starve) would accelerate inflation; this in the bigger picture means loss of income in a budgetary sense.
For exporters of commodities, higher income from the favorable terms of trade shock can add to inflationary pressures within the economy.
Higher military spending among NATO's European states will increase demand for oil, natgas, base metals and steel. This will stress already-tight inventories and consequently lead to higher prices, magnifying the above.
Policy Channel.
Typically, if Central Bank expects the shock to be temporary or transitory, they would allow the shock to pass through the economy without drastic action. But since inflation is above target in most countries (mainly due to the reopening of the economy after the pandemic – pent-up demand) and will now increase further due to the current commodity shock. These are the scenarios where the risk of expectations de-anchoring rises substantially.
To prevent the loss of confidence in central banks ability to tackle inflation, they will tighten policy, even in commodities importers, further depressing  global growth. Also, this is a global shock, majority of the central bank will tighten policy in sync – hence slowdown of growth will be global.
How will I play this?
I often don't try to time the market or comment about macro conditions. But since I have previously worked as a global macro research analyst and experienced a boom-bust cycle first in Pakistan, I had to drop out of my Masters's program at Cambridge University as I couldn't afford tuition fees (40% currency depreciation in 3 weeks). I do become cautious, however.
My general observation with investment in equities and crypto has been "winner keeps on winning."
I will be DCA'ing on quality projects that I put hard yards in building conviction and doing in-depth research.
Apart from the usual suspect BTC ( atm v bullish) and ETH – other projects include AVAX,NEAR,ATOM,SOL,LUNA,LINK and MATIC. These names might not give me 100X ROI, but I believe the project will provide me with the broadest index level exposure to crypto and will most likely exist after the crisis.
In these time, its okay to have beta exposure rather than burn yourself chasing alpha.
